View Single Post
Old 09-16-2013, 12:31 PM
  #10  
Jaded N Cynical
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Apr 2013
Posts: 263
Default

Originally Posted by GoCats67 View Post
Now that the ISL is done, does anyone have any insight/strong rumor on when the bidding festivities begin?

I took some current staffing numbers from a different post and the departure info from a chief pilot communication to come up with a back of the napkin analysis of the 737.

Disclaimer - "I don't work in Manpower Planning, but I did spend the night at a Holiday Inn Express."

The under/over column is the number of captains understaffed or overstaffed based on what the staffing would be if you directly used the Percent of Total 737 departures to determine the correct staffing for the individual Base. Obviously, this is dull crayon on the level of precision, but at least it give a general idea of where the bids are likely to go. If somebody wants to pull down actual hours in and out of the airports, you could get much more accurate.

base --Captains ---Percentage of Captains --Dep / Month --percent of departures---under/over

EWR------352---------------23.9%--------------------2060-------------------15.4%--------------- 125 over

IAH-------694---------------47.2%--------------------3604-------------------27.0%----------------297 over

CLE-------125---------------8.5%----------------------549---------------------4.1%-----------------65over

ORD-------77----------------5.2%---------------------2317-------------------17.3%----------------178under

DEN-------85----------------5.8%---------------------1704--------------------12.8%---------------102under

SFO-------40----------------2.7%---------------------1924--------------------14.4%----------------172under

LAX-------97----------------6.6%---------------------1203---------------------9.0%-----------------35under

IAD-------0------------------0.0%---------------------665---------------------5.0%----new base? 73under

total----1470-----------------------------------------14026



So based on that it looks like there will be alot of SFO and ORD 737 bids coming.

I think that the IAH and EWR bases will likely see an increase in size of the A320 base in each location, but I haven't really looked at those numbers yet.

Finally, I assume there will be a 787 LAX base opened in short order as well.

So, anybody have any good rumors on when the bidding will begin?

That breakdown jives with the rumors I have heard from a "special assignment" pilot working at Willis.

DEN, ORD, SFO grow the 737 positions. More Airbuses for IAH, as 737s get redeployed. Possibly a 737 base IAD Haven't heard anything on the 787 but the writing on the wall looks like LAX is inevitable.
Jaded N Cynical is offline