Originally Posted by
Bzzt
Retirement numbers are very small for the next 5 years, they've been widely exaggerated around here but guys who've flowed over have showed people in the crew room the numbers. Something like 63 next year increasing over the next 5 but doesn't hit anything significant til 5+. Alot of those projected hiring numbers are based off expansion, which is speculation.
Your retirement #s are technically correct, but what you are failing to take into account is that airlines don't start hiring **right when** the mass retirements take place - they start hiring **well before** that point. Which is precisely why AA, DL, UA are all cranking up hiring #s that seem to be well above retirement #s.
Also, AA has a lot more catching up to do WRT route expansion than, say, UAL and DAL, which did a lot of their growing the past 5 years.
These are the reasons why I know AA will hire significantly more than just 300/yr.