Originally Posted by vspeed

That scenario although not completely without plausibility is HIGHLY unlikely. For one, the company doesn't do drawdowns quickly, maybe in a 'right sizing' scenario it's plausible and those furloughed would most likely agree it happens that quickly, but the reality is the company is a whole now looking to reduce deficits and keep bleedout to the minimum. They will mitigate a parking of a fleet slowly and match it to the attrition levels based on demographics and retirements as well as vacancy movement. You will possibly see some displacements but they will not open the floodgates. To do so would be a training center, cost detrimental nightmare. The vacancy's and any displacements will be a slow trickle and not the damn bursting event you propose. See the last vacancy bid, that will be the scenario for years to come. It took well over 5-7 years to completely phase out the 737 300 and 500's and this management team doesn't do anything cost prohibitive to appease emotion. This is the company running the show now, not the union(s). There are no absolutes and the word 'expensive' with regard to pilot staffing is not in this managements vocabulary. Stagnation may happen for junior Captains but displacements will be far and few in between, the company has plenty of slop at the min/max staffing levels to absorb a very wide degree of movement without triggering a displacement bid, and that includes secondary vacancies and backfills..all the while keeping the vacancy bids, although monthly, to a slow cadence.