Originally Posted by
WTFover
A VERY high percentage? In that same time, DAL and UAL are retiring 75% and AA 90%!
Let's see, one could be at 60% of 1,000 or so or...10-25% of ten times that. Which one would be a Captain's seat?
Not saying that is the end all, be all, but many on here have discussed the upgrade time vs. the majors. For new hires, upgrades, and the pay, just isn't going to happen for a very long time.
Eighteen years is an impossible length of time to predict anything in the airline industry. While it is theoretically possible that what you say may come true (assuming the numbers are correct) huge changes are bound to happen to airlines that will totally change your statement.
The retirement age may change. The economy will get better/worse. Mergers will happen. Bankruptcies will happen. Upstarts will appear. The list goes on.
For the near future, retirements probably matter less than fleet growth at Atlas. Ten new planes at AA is 1% whereas the same ten planes at Atlas would be a 20% increase in our fleet. That kind of growth in the next year or two is fairly feasible here and not at the mega carriers.
That said, my crystal ball went inop years ago so what the heck do I know for sure? What the heck do any of us know for sure? In this industry "ya rolls the dice; ya takes your chances".
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