Originally Posted by
DC8DRIVER
Eighteen years is an impossible length of time to predict anything in the airline industry. While it is theoretically possible that what you say may come true (assuming the numbers are correct) huge changes are bound to happen to airlines that will totally change your statement.
The retirement age may change. The economy will get better/worse. Mergers will happen. Bankruptcies will happen. Upstarts will appear. The list goes on.
For the near future, retirements probably matter less than fleet growth at Atlas. Ten new planes at AA is 1% whereas the same ten planes at Atlas would be a 20% increase in our fleet. That kind of growth in the next year or two is fairly feasible here and not at the mega carriers.
That said, my crystal ball went inop years ago so what the heck do I know for sure? What the heck do any of us know for sure? In this industry "ya rolls the dice; ya takes your chances".
8
I agree with everything you've said here. I am simply pointing out one piece of the puzzle in that Atlas has a much lower percentage of retirements and that has a direct impact on where one stands in seniority.
FWIW, here are the numbers:
9-12/2013 18
2014 38
2015 31
2016 29
2017 37
2018 33
2019 38
2020 33
2021 22
2022 27
2023 26
2024 19
2025 28
2026 20
2027 36
2028 25
2029 28
2030 16
I got tired of counting after that, but there are some on the list with retirement dates of 2050!