Originally Posted by
sulkair
Question 1: when we speak of these formulas, are we simply
looking at the seniority list total and dividing by number of a/c divided by 2 pilots, or do we only factor ACTIVE LINE PILOTS? I.e. no instructors, management pilots, LOAs, or anyone not on the bidding roster.
We (forum posters) usually look at total pilots. The information necessary to figure active pilots is usually not available to line pilots.
Question 2: Under 117 what will the new target be? Guesses to a range what will be considered barely sustainable, to borderline overstaffed?
For Mesa (or most any other regional), which is currently @ 6.10, I'd guess they'd have to add 15% to accommodate the 117 rules (7.02), or reduce their flying, or change the efficiency of the scheduling - regionals are very dependent on the 'mothership' to assign them flying, so there's only so much that can be done to alleviate the situation that a mainline carrier gives the regional.
You'll see more changes at regionals, as a %, then at mainline. Its very dependent on factors like work rules and how hard management flies the planes too. Spirit has a overall staffing ratio of 8.41 (831 pilots/51 planes, divide that by 2 to get per seat #'s). Virgin America has a ratio of 5.83. Spirit likely has better work rules, and Spirit management flies their planes around the clock.
There's also more demand in the summer and holiday period then in the fall. Its a 'slow' time right now, so some airlines carry extra crew in a slow period to cover for the future, or to engender goodwill (Southwest didn't furlough in 2008). Other carriers staff for the slow months, run lean in the high demand months, and/or choose to discount goodwill with their employees.
Southwest has a ratio of 5.52. They don't fly their planes at night, and rely heavily on the pilots to pick up extra flying. American, @ 6.77, doesn't rely on nearly as much pilots picking up extra flying, and has to staff for 3-4 pilot crews on long range aircraft like the 777.
There's so many factors that go into staffing formulas - I doubt any of the carriers know for sure themselves the effect of the 117 rules, for certain. But my uneducated guess for Mesa - 15%, with 7% barely sustainable, and 20% overstaffed.
