Originally Posted by
blastoff
34000 Legacy/FDX/UPS pilots retire in the next 15 years.
There are currently 24000 pilots at the regionals and large fractionals.
If you're under 40 the only reason you don't move on is if you really don't want to (We all know the guys that complain about not getting hired but only apply to one airline and defiantly avoid job fairs or anything that will get them noticed).
I think the underlying theme of this discussion is securing a job at a legacy-type major IE AA, SWA, DAL, etc. FDX/UPS needs to be in that list also.
With that said, the following need to be analyzed
1. Will the 34,000 retiring pilots be replaced one for one, especially in light of mergers etc. In almost all cases, mergers cause duplicity and over-staffing. Some companies (FDX I believe) have come out and said they are presently overstaffed.
2. Will every 24,000 Regional and Frax pilot attempt to go to the majors/legacies
3. Those that do, will create openings at, well, Frax/Regionals. But it is yet to be seen if a 22 year old starting flight school today, will see a "pilot shortage" at the majors
4. No one can predict future oil prices/business growth, etc.
etc. while a "pilot shortage" may indeed be in the works, a "legacy applicant shortage" will never exist, ever