Originally Posted by
Bzzt
1500 over 5 years at AA, let's assume that's the norm. 300 per year at UAL, DAL, AA so were looking at 900 a year. If you don't have strong connections, internship, etc. you're not getting hired. Time to face the facts, most of us will spend the majority of our careers at a regional and maybe if we're lucky we'll spend the last 10 or so at a mainline.
These "projections" also account for growth which may or may not happen. I prefer to count my chickens after they've hatched.
900 per year....There are only ~20000 regional pilots.
Probably 20-30% either don't want to move up, or are un-hireable leaving ~16000 pilots.
Your 900 per year will increase, and doesn't need growth to do so. Retirements start to skyrocket after 2020.
While obviously every slot at a major will not be offered to a regional pilot, your own(probably conservative) 900 per year projection will have enough slots for theoretically every single regional pilot to move to a major within around 16 years. That leaves the average 25-30 year old regional FO with a 20+ year career at a major.
900 a year is a pretty good number.
Your numbers also don't count desirable destinations like brown, purple, SWA, AAG, and Hawaii.