Originally Posted by
pagey
900 per year....There are only ~20000 regional pilots.
Probably 20-30% either don't want to move up, or are un-hireable leaving ~16000 pilots.
Your 900 per year will increase, and doesn't need growth to do so. Retirements start to skyrocket after 2020.
While obviously every slot at a major will not be offered to a regional pilot, your own(probably conservative) 900 per year projection will have enough slots for theoretically every single regional pilot to move to a major within around 16 years. That leaves the average 25-30 year old regional FO with a 20+ year career at a major.
900 a year is a pretty good number.
Your numbers also don't count desirable destinations like brown, purple, SWA, AAG, and Hawaii.
Nor does the 900 count for normal attrition, fractionals, charter, corporate, overseas, etc. Bzzt, is the new doom and gloom twist all decent / good news into trash and depression...his rationale is "being a realist."