Originally Posted by
Scoop
This is one topic that I think is confusing. Some say it will take 3+ years because that is what it has taken recently. What you have to consider is that we have not hired in 3 years and have not hired steadily for over 12 years.
Guys about 500 numbers above the plug are currently in LAX and SLC. With projected hiring at 600/year guys may see the west coast in a year.
One more thing I have noticed - when things are slow guys get tired of waiting and bid where they want to be, even if they will be very very junior. When the movement picks up some guys will wait for a little more seniority before they move around which may also help more junior guys get out west quicker.
Scoop
Exactly right. Significant and sustained hiring makes bidding magic happen far beyond the "how many numbers from the plug does it take today to..." hypotheticals.
I think a few hundred pilots into the hiring cycle, provided we are still hiring, will see some examples of new hires getting west coast base(s) within their first year, assuming they are on a plane for their year freeze that is based there. Not everyone who wants it, but we will see it here and there. I think 2 years is a very safe guestimate as long as we continue to hire the numbers people are talking about. Sustained hiring in significant numbers causes a lot of unexpected air bubbles in the seniority list.
There is supposed to be more hiring in under two years than there's been total since 2001. Movement will be much faster all around
if that holds true.