Originally Posted by
ghilis101
If air traffic is supposed to double in the next decade or 2, won't they be forced to grow? Unless they decide to put wide bodies on everything, Emirates-style
FAA forecast from FY12
This year’s forecast predicts that the industry will grow from 731 million passengers in 2011 to 1.2 billion in 2032.
Cumulatively, air traffic growth for U.S. carriers–measured by revenue passenger miles–is expected to rise by more than 90 percent in the next 20 years. It grew by 3.5 percent in 2011. Airport tower operations are expected to increase by 23 percent. Also, the number of aircraft handled at FAA en-route centers, which separate high altitude traffic, is expected to increase by 50 percent.
I agree with others on shrinking to efficiency and not expanding. Just look at other legacy mergers. Delta/NWA combined about 12,600 pilots and currently 11,800 and just starting to hire finally. United/Continental combined has approx. 12,500 pilots and they currently are the same size Delta/NWA was when they had just merged. AA has 9900 on the list and US Airways about 5,100. That's 15,000 pilots over two lists (or three lists with the West/East). Going forward as the merger realizes efficiencies and synergies, you will see a hub or two get cut. Delta/NWA said they'd keep everything, but in the end MEM and CVG basically got gutted. AA/US will probably follow suit and ditch common routes/close hubs and any inefficiencies out of the system. 15,000 pilots is on the much higher side even with retirements coming up. Best case scenario would be as they downsize (rightsize) the merger, the retirements will be enough to meet the synergies required.