Originally Posted by
NimbusSurfer
According to APC there are 14,759 pilots at AA/US combined. Based on this chart (assuming zero growth, hiring only for attrition and no early retirements), 35% of the pilots are retiring in the next 10 years.
So, one hired today would be at the 65% percentile roughly a decade from now. Assuming one upgrades at the 50% mark...you're still not making Captain within 10 years.
*I'm sure there will be some growth, medicals and early retirees...
What you may be forgetting is not growth or stagnation, but potential shrinkage. The combined DAL/NWA list shrank by over 2,000 or so from the merger until now. Historically, a merger has never been 1+1 = 2, but rather something less due to contract productivity "enhancements" and route overlap efficiencies.