Originally Posted by
EXPAT1
It seems the Big 3 Gulf Carriers are accelerating their growth and moving into Hyper-growth mode. These unprecedented orders of widebody aircraft will tie up any chance for any future Big scale growth by any of the existing Western carriers. All of this competition though may be short lived if an economic down cycle or Middle East war erupts. The Big 3 Gulf carriers know how to manage during growth periods but none of them have been seriously tested during economic downturns. I know Emirates has an outstanding marketing/ticket sales team which go into new markets at least 6 month ahead of innagural service and perform marketing and promotions to gain business. The other 2 Gulf carriers though I am not sure can sustain this growth. The few times I have flown on Emirates and Qatar I have always been impressed by their new aircraft, outstanding service and cheap tickets. Interesting times and an interesting story. The governments of these 3 carriers always seem to be amazingly supportive of expansion and growth unlike Western governments.
Dubai Airshow: 'Gulf Three' deals will strike fear into rival airlines - CNN.com
Please do not take this like I am super ra ra Emirates/Gulf carriers, but two of the points you make are not accurate. The order for the B777X is for delivery beginning in 2020. At that time the oldest B777-300ER would be 15 years old. If the Rolls Royce powered airplanes were still in the fleet then we are talking over 20 years old in some cases. So the B777X order realistically is for replacement of the current B777s. Sure there will be some growth aircraft in there when you combine the A380 and A350 deliveries, but it's not all growth like some think.
Emirates managed very well through the 2008-2010 economic downturn. They also managed very well in 2003 when SARS hit and Asian traffic dropped to virtually nothing. They actually strategize at taking market share away from other carriers who foolishly pull out of markets during down times.
Typhoonpilot