Originally Posted by
ghilis101
I think if people are worried about the "unknown" factor of AA's future, I do think that is a valid concern. But you have to take a look at what makes money: international routes. AA owns South America for now, and they stand to do great with USAir's Europe market, and further expansion into Asia and Africa. Disclaimer: Its been a while since I got my MBA. But I will say AA is positioned well for the future, and the merger isn't just a shell or something to get the investors a quick buck.
But whos likely to be affected the worst in the next downturn? The guys who don't realize the full potential of the intl market. With that being said, I would probably pick a company like Spirit over SWA.
Remember when Pan Am and TWA were the two big 747 driving, International Airlines everyone wanted to fly for? What happened to both of them when international traffic dried up due to the economy and terrorism in the early 90's?
What drove all the Majors into bankruptcy after 9-11? Lack of international traffic, due to fears of terrorism.
When you put all your eggs into the International basket, you'll die when the next terrorist threat shows itself. Ask anyone at UAL, DAL, NWA and AA what caused their bankruptcy. Now, how did SWA do during that same time frame?
Never lost a dime.
40% of the World's air travel traffic is inside the USA, that's why all the Foreign Carriers want to get more access to our markets. Right now, SWA owns domestic USA flying. But, if/when the idiots in DC allow Cabotage and then allow Emirates and the rest of the foreign carriers to fly inside the USA, that will change too. Be careful who you vote for. When United filed for bankruptcy, someone asked Senator John McCain what would happen if United went away. He said, "Well, if US Carriers can't do it and make money, we'll just have to let Foreign Carriers in to fly those routes."
Idiots. I say we hire kids from India and China to be our 535 Elected Representatives. I'm POSITIVE we could find Better, Smarter, more Trust Worthy kids in India and China, than the Wh0res we have representing us today in DC.