Exactly. The myth of billions of people in the third world magically morphing into cell phone using car driving travelers is the mother of all pipe dreams. Just plug those vaporware demand numbers into the petrol supply output potential. Even if it happens on that scale (which it won't) crude and commodities will spike to unbelievable levels resulting in demand destruction far in excess of their current maniacle growth projections.

Funny thing about bubbles is no one sees them until after they pop. This is like the 50 seater RJ heyday only on a grander stage (and with more at stake). For well over a decade the whole world was going to fly 50 seats at a time, businessman love frequency blah blah blah, STL and CVG imminent domaining for new runways, planes being put into service limited only by factory production and Canada/Brazil duking it out trying to out subsidize eachother for orders. Then as quickly as it began, the whole sector collapsed completely. Not because of any seismic shift after the fact, but because it was a bubble all along, and hardly anyone saw it until it was over.

Now here we are again with the SWF fake royal airlines placing their little airplane chess pieces on their maps of the world playing real life Airline Empire based off the fantasy that overpopulation is a national resource and if you build it they will come (and fly) for all eternity, for great success.

Their ace in the hole is the flat out extortion of our crony corporatism. They may think they can connect all the Chinese ghost cities with hourly 380 service to every major city on earth, but that's quite obviously never going to happen. The real prize/ultimate fight for survival is and always was going to be established US and EU markets. They are bribing us with our own money to sell them massive permanent sectors of our economy for a temporary production boom and we're falling for it. They have even managed to get some labor groups onboard too (on the bubble side of the equation).

There is net growth in China/Africa/etc, but it is nowhere near the ambitions of the 3 almost non existant O&D Gulf carriers. The real prize is the transfer of US and EU capacity to them. This is little more than a soverign wealth fund leveraged buyout attempt of our airline industry.