Originally Posted by
RV5M
What about Mesa?
What I see is the 2013 and early 2014 classes reaching upgrade at around two years, which could continue with some attrition and growth.
We had 9/11 and an economic downturn surpress growth for a decade. Could upgrade times at all of the regionals go back to "normal" in the coming years?
Problem is regionals are probably going to shrink more just like the majors have gone through. I believe in 2000 Delta had close to 10,000 pilots. I believe the combined Delta/NWA list has like 12,000 but don't quote me on that. Hiring would really need to pick up and another problem(at least at my airline), is that at least half if not more of the attrition here is FOs leaving for spirit, allegiant, virgin, etc. A lot of Captains are waiting for Delta/American/United, etc. For all the large jets that come on property usually means more parked 50 seaters. To think that regionals that have a bunch of 50 seaters are going to replace those planes 1 for 1 is very delusional. Any "growth" will generally be at the expense of another airline. I am a fairly senior captain and I very rarely move up. The days of short upgrades may return but hiring at the majors needs to be firing on all cylinders and you need to find an airline that isn't choking to death on mostly 50 seat aircraft.