Originally Posted by
pilot64golfer
Sled,
I agree with you. Those 05-06 hires are holding Captain so far out of seniority they are going to either be on reserve forever or they are going to get bumped by 67T FOs and Captains. I hope it doesn't happen, they personally don't deserve it, but if it does it does.
But in any case they are going to be junior for a LONG time. 50% of all Airbus FOs can hold guppy Captain and 75% of 76T FOs. Not to mention all the 76T Captains that can't hold 777 will have to go somewhere when bumped.
Yes there are new guppies coming online as replacement, but 76T FOs are sitting home getting 70+ hours to not fly and they are going to live that dream until they are forced out, then take their guppy Captain slot. That's in addition to the pilots who will bid those openings, including pilots being bumped out of the 747 FO in LAX, 777 FO in SEA, and other pilots that just bid.
I predict we will see a surplus on the guppy Captain position just like we are seeing on the other fleets. Won't be every domicile, but LAX and DEN (maybe even ORD) are prime candidates.
sled/gofer,
I do agree that no young 05/06 hire Captains will ever get bumped ever. That we agree, even though some wish that would happen, but no worries it won't. I would also disagree that there is going to be a tsunami of displacements from the 76fo to 73ca. There might be some but I predict very little to none. With the slow replacement of 73 to 76 there has been easy movement into 73 vacancies by senior 76ca. One can only move into the fleet with vacancies and there's plenty of 76 guys in line to hold it. The 76 staffing is getting sucked down from the top, leaving no need to displace. Down the road there might even be lual 76ca vacancies. 76fo's will be waiting a long time before getting into a 73ca seat. By that time there'll be enough retirements that it'll all even out.