Originally Posted by
RJDio
I've been here 6 years and have 900-1000 guys below me. I can't hold emb captain anywhere. At least 200 numbers away for crj for msp/ord and that doesn't count the 100's of guys that have bids in for lax, Slc, den, sea, only. We're upgrading 5 or so emb a month and about 10 rj a month. We have no communication from management on what the projections are, so the music could stop at any time. We have a ton of airframes coming off contract in the next 3 years and not all will be renewed.
So anyone hired today will have at least 1000 guys itching to upgrade in front of them, a lot of captains not going anywhere (at least 500 but probably way more), and a shrinking airline in the next 3 years. Although upgrade time might drop I doubt it will drop to 1-2 years. These are just facts.
The most junior EMB CA was hired 6.5 years ago (June, 2007). There were several years of no hiring between then and now, thus it is likely (and quite probable) that there will be a rather significant drop in the current upgrade time as we approach the pilots that got hired after the stagnant years.
Finally, I've been here just over 2.5 years and have 700 pilots below me. I am a lowish 2500 number. So... What you're saying about "only" having 900-1000 pilots below just proves my statement.