Originally Posted by
seafeye
400 pilots at PSA means 200 upgrades.
We have approx 250 f/o's.
So if you come to Psa you will not upgrade in less than 2 years.
Do the math. 10 pilot upgrades per month.
20 months to get the 200 upgraded.
Then 5 every month after. The 250th f/o right now on property has at least 30 months before they upgrade. Then all new hires are after that.
A 3 year upgrade average is most realistic.
Um, your math doesn't quite work.
Let's assume all those 900s show up before Jan 2016, I believe they're taking deliveries of 2 per month starting in the spring. That's another 300 pilots. That's 150 upgrades right there.
Let's also assume that attrition is 5 per month. Not just the New American preferential interviews or whatever, but also guys that go to UAL, DAL, jB, FedEx, etc, etc. That's 120 pilots in the next 24 months.
So in the next two years PSA will have to upgrade 270 pilots which is larger that the current FO pool.
That assumes that the 200s all stay on property, and that attrition is ONLY 5 pilots per month, which I believe could be a little low.
All that said, it's all a crapshoot. Take your best guess.
You can also use that same math to figure out how many FOs might actually hit the top of that 4 year pay scale.