Originally Posted by
daldude
Why is it pessimistic. As a 2008 hire. He has roughly 3500 pilots between him and the most junior captain position in NY. 4500 for most other bases.
570 ish retirements in next half decade.
717 already 34% manned already. Roughly another 200-300 captain positions.
737 are replacement aircraft.
30 321s. 210 captains there.
10 330s. 140 captains.
So we expect 600 new captains in next 5 years.
I think his numbers are pretty good based on what we are seeing today with regards to replacement aircraft, new aircraft and retirement numbers. Anything else is pure unsupported speculation.
The retirement numbers for the next 5 years are closer to 1200. Are you saying only half of those are captains? I am guessing it is closer to 1000 captain retirements by the end of 2018, that's scheduled not accounting for anyone going early.
Of course I am already at 14 years and still not close to captain so maybe I am being optimistic that I will be able to hold it prior to 20 years.