Originally Posted by
daldude
Why is it pessimistic. As a 2008 hire. He has roughly 3500 pilots between him and the most junior captain position in NY. 4500 for most other bases.
570 ish retirements in next half decade.
717 already 34% manned already. Roughly another 200-300 captain positions.
737 are replacement aircraft.
30 321s. 210 captains there.
10 330s. 140 captains.
So we expect 600 new captains in next 5 years.
I think his numbers are pretty good based on what we are seeing today with regards to replacement aircraft, new aircraft and retirement numbers. Anything else is pure unsupported speculation.
HockeyPilot is senior to me. I'm also a 2008 hire. He says that he doesn't think he will hold captain before 14 years, or somewhere other than NYC until 16years. Based just on age 65 retirements, my year end 2022 (14 years and change) is 71xx. If you assume the average retirement age is closer to 63, it would be closer to 55xx. With the growth you've stated and people holding out for QOL, upgrade will be much sooner than 14 years IN MY OPINION. When things really start moving, I think you'll see a lot more really junior people at the bottom of a lot of categories. Things are stacked up much more per seniority right now due to years of stagnation. Again, just my opinion.