Originally Posted by
Mason32
1st you obviously have zero evidence or knowledge of the actual staffing situations at the airlines your discussing. Hiring is but one part of the equation. None of them are retaining pilots at acceptable rates to staff their own flying; let alone any new flying.
Why do you think so many managements are after contract amendments outside of bankruptcy and section six right now? They already know what you refuse to accept. There aren't enough pilots already at regionals.
2nd if it was in managements best interest to continue a whipsaw then they would not remove an entire airline from the equation. They'd have kept a small Comair around to aid the whipsaw. Had they done that, they'd be left with the top half of your seniority list only. Then they'd be replacing them in the middle of this crunch. Your logic is flawed.
Back to Eagle.
There is nobody to replace Eagle with. They could move some flying successfully to Piedmont as replacement flying as they park the older turboprops. However, nobody is capable of accepting any real growth flying.
There are two plans for Eagle. One is much better than the other; however both provide continued employment.
The kid asked if he should stay or go.
The short answer is; stay.
False. There are far too many pilots at the regionals. Even the Devil himself Roger Cohen says the regionals currently have 300 too many 50 seaters which is 2-3000ish pilots too many after the transition to larger RJs.
Don't fall in to this false sense of security because Eagle is offering sign on bonuses. These are temporary band aids to float them a little while until they figure out what they are going to do. If there was a true shortage pay would be going up not down.
They can shut Eagle down far faster than most believe. They have plenty of trump cards and one is to put mainline planes to fill gaps. Either way it will shrink way down and if the intention is to only have 60 airplanes at Eagle they can put 10-20 at Mesa, a few at Wisky, Skywest and Eagle is done.
For OP there is no way to tell at this point. I would wait and see if the proposal goes through. If it doesn't I would imagine it will not bode well for Eagle. Also your math is off as it only considers people leaving Eagle will be flow throughs. If it starts going to 30 a month after Sept. you can add another 10-20 to UAL, Delta ect. plus FOs leaving.
I have flown with FOs here at Eagle that came from Comair and Endeavor. I have seen Eagle FOs leave for Comair and Pinnacle. You just never know. I have even flown with Eagle FOs that were hired 20 years ago left Eagle and ended up back as a new hire at Eagle.
Good luck. That is a very hard decision only you can make and depends on many variables such as where you live and age.
You're listening to Cohen? I stopped reading right after that comment. That's like listening to the White House press secretary. Only job is to convince you what the boss wants you to think. Cohen does not speak for AA.
In the past they could replace a company like Eagle. It isn't so easy now. If you seriously think they could, then you're really out of touch with the state of the industry. Even AA upper management knows; which is why they want a 10 year contract with no amendment round. They need to get through the next decade as main line hiring goes through the roof and strips the regionals of every hit able pilot.
There are more retirements at the mainlines over the next 10 years than there are pilots in the entire regional industry. Do the math yourself. Guess when it really starts to pick up? Think its coincidence that everybody is getting in contract talks while a majority of pilots still think as you?