I believe you are correct, they stopped hiring not long after we signed C2K in May, the contract that got rid of reserve pilots being able to bid move ups, along with many other concessions...
My point is, about every 10 years or so, another Black Swan shows up. We are overdue for the next one.
Feel free to speculate what that swan is going to look like, here, I'll start:
1. Emirates gets more access to our major cites and/or Cabotage gets approved.