Originally Posted by
scambo1
Restarting and then maintaining hiring is an incremental process...just like anything. I expect 50/month by summer ad infinitum. Of course, you want to be on the front of the wave, but the wave really is just beginning to build 1/2 mile from the shore. Be patient...The only reason I can say that with a stern face is because all of us in front of you have to be patient while we wait for you to get here.
The numbers are pretty simple, just based on the regulated retirement age there will be 1207 pilots gone by the end of 2018. That's an average of 240/year but in reality it ramps up pretty steeply (121, 168, 223, 284, 411). Then, in the next five years 3561 pilots age out (2019-2023). That's 41.4% of the pilots on the property on Jan 1, 2014. Gone by the end of 2023.
Factor in current mainline growth plans (B717s and B737-9s) and a steady stream of new hires will be necessary to keep things on track.