Originally Posted by
sailingfun
I don't think wall street cares a bit if Delta hires pilots. What they are afraid of is the capacity wars that seem to start every time airlines get a nickel or two in their pocket. When they smell that coming airline stocks will tank. If it actually happens and history says it will then profits will tank also. The first growth airframe did not arrive at Delta until last oct. We are 3 months into the cycle and the hiring is happening. As the retirements increase and more airframes then originally planned start arriving the numbers will increase.
Maybe, and we'll see I guess. There is still an awful lot of wiggle room to continue to shrink to profitability with the aging 320's, nebulous 757 retirement schedule and portion of the 88 fleet that is several years away from getting glass/modernized. Even if the mainline grows with the 717's, the network could still shrink. And capacity wars are outside the walls of our keep preparing to mount the mother of all assaults the likes of which the industry has never before seen. The fantasy of endless YoY margin growth is about to come to a screeching halt in a few short years or less. Only the airlines that can consistently win marketshare will survive and thrive. Capacity dicipline is a time limited tactic that will very soon begin to cause more long term harm than the transient short term YoY number buffs.
The next 5 years will be far more influential than the last 5, which will be viewed as incredibly easy by comparison. The rest of this decade is where RA and team will truly even begin to earn their money and their legacy. Canibalizing your own capacity to choke supply to increase relative demand was the easy part. Actually winning in a market that is barfing capacity all over the place will seperate the leaders from the managers. To steal a line from Patton, the goal isn't to reduce your capacity for the good of the industry, its to get the other poor SOB to reduce his.