AGREE. If the economy holds and WWIII doesn't start, there will be:

1. Transition: Independent > consolidated > purchased > wholly owned > stapled and fenced > absorbed (no more regionals)

2. Training and simulator sessions will become more demanding. Those few who don't "measure up" (including some old time strap hangers) will be evaluated by an FAA simulator check pilot. If they don't pass they will be offered the opportunity to resign with a "severance package."

3. In five years there will be a joint FAA/Airlines "Aviation Cadet" program offering "free pilot training" for those with a four year degree. (Demand may reduce it to an Associate Degree.) Even after thorough candidate screening the one year program will have a high attrition rate.

It will be located on a former military base (Reese AFB Lubbock ,TX is a good example). The last phase of training will be in regional aircraft like the CRJ200.

The program will be similar to military UPT but with an airline operations orientation (no formation, etc.) . Graduates will have about three hundreds hours, a type rating and be qualified (with appropriate FAA waivers) to fly as FO in regional "type" aircraft and will have a five year commitment with their first company. .

Airline assignments will be by class ranking. #1 picks from the available then #2.


So - it's all a pipe dream but somebody better come up with a solution soon.