Originally Posted by
JungleBus
Chupa saying that new type ratings are included in the original certificates issued figure kinda killed his credibility on the matter, since new type ratings on existing certificates are clearly tabulated separately. I haven't seen anything anywhere that indicates that replacements are included in "original certificates issued" - why would they be? And yeah, along with the UND Lovelace et al study, everything I've seen on the matter treated the "Original Certificates Issued" number as persons earning a commercial certificate for the first time. It pretty closely tracks major airline hiring, with a roughly 2 year lag.
Not sure why we're even arguing about this. Whether the true number is 8600 or something lower, I think we're in agreement that the last 3 years have seen the fewest commercial certificates issued in 30 years or so, and that clearly the number of 1500 hr+ pilots applying to the lowest-paying regionals is much, much smaller than that 8600/yr figure. There are plenty of commercial/ATP pilots out there (~260k at last count) - just very few who are willing or able to work for regional FO pay.
I was using adding a new type/ address change as an example. As explained to me, this number is counted any time the FAA makes a new "green plastic license" for any reason. Could be the first time it was issued, could be to replace a lost certificate, it is any time a "original" as opposed to a "temporary" is generated. The 8600 number is a mix of new pilots and other issuances of an "original certificate" This number does not state the amount of pilots that for the first time earned their private, commercial, or ATP rating. Again, we would need to look up 8710 data to know exactly how many new licenses there were. With FAA jump-seaters throwing out numbers of a few hundred to a thousand, I'm sure they are talking about this data, (8710s).