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Old 02-02-2014 | 08:50 AM
  #51  
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Originally Posted by tsquare
I don't think JBlue selling a few cheap seats is gonna hurt DAL much in the big scheme of things. We have a lot of other areas from which we can make up the margin.
Its not about a few cheap seats though. JB has big plans to capacity dump onto DL routes. The assault has already begun out of BOS and will continue. Expect ATL, MSP and more this year and next. What that does, hype over intro fares aside, is dump tens of thousands of seats a month onto routes that are finally doing good because of capacity dicipline. They will bank on DL backing off to preserve yields while they continue to grow forever, all the while tying in with Gulf airlines and any other flag of convienience carrier to syphon off international/HVC traffic on a permanantly growing basis.

DL has slowly begun to take the fight to them and others. Slowly. Its a positive sign, but JB will continue their assault on DL's network because they have to continue to grow forever to survive. Yet the more they grow, the more the legacies will feel the pain. So we raise fairs and reduce capacity to preserve the fares, and they grow into the capacity while also raising fares but due to their lower CASM (primarily due to labor cost advantages) they remain profitable while growing and keeping fares below ours as long as we have YoY RASM growth tunnel vision.

We're finally starting to add capacity on a few markets they do. Finally. But its not enough. We need to take it to them and do it hard. Now. Before we wake up in 5 or 10 more years and they have another couple hundred narrow bodies overflying capacity we've yielded while tying in with even more Gulf airline routes in a multi front attack on our business model. Of course, they may be merged/fragmented by then, which would be great, but until and unless that happens, we have to fight to win. We can't let yet them pick us apart on their terms. Its us or them. Its not personal, its just business. And they (and VX, etc) are hoping its them. That's fine. But our current path is radically unsustainable. We can't rest flat footed on our (newly re-earned) laurels while they continue their stratedgy of marketshare transfer on their terms.
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