LAX or ORD? Hard to predict. Current bottom guy is approx. 10000. Bottom ORD is 9600. LAX is 9000.

So you could think "I'm getting ORD quickly". But ORD has been stagnant and when the door shuts at stagnant bases the list can freeze for years. The huge unknown is will additional flying come into the base? That's always an opportunity to get into a base. Example - years ago BOS was super senior. Then it expanded and became junior during the expansion phase. The door shut and it became more senior as flying was reduced.

LAX? Senior. 777 is now the most senior bid status in the company. Starting AB flying in LAX opened the door for junior guys to bid in. Will it stay open? Or will 767D displacements to the AB prevent junior guys from bidding in?

And everyone sent to MIA/LGA doesn't want to stay there. Probably 2/3's want out. So they've got their bids in for ORD/DFW/LAX/DCA/BOS. Percentages would indicate that the majority are trying to get to LAX/ORD/DFW.

IMO? Without expansion every slot taken reduces the odds of the next guy to get the base. Where that line is, IMO, is almost impossible to predict. Six months ago no one expected DFW to be open to new hires. Last class had everyone sent to DFW. Probably a one time event due to Supp CC and STL reduction. We were surprised how quickly junior recallees got ORD.