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Old 02-22-2014 | 02:25 PM
  #191  
cesnacaptn
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Joined: Feb 2007
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Originally Posted by GearBoy
Honestly,

One would be well-advised to weigh all of the pros and cons of any airline. Far too often we go thru the process with blinders on or we keep asking the same question over and over again until we get the answer we want to hear.

In addition to having many benefits, Alaska also is a small carrier with growth in seat miles only. There appears to be little attrition, now and going forward. There are only about 1400 pilots flying their line in 4 bases. So, no matter how you slice it, there really aren't going to be that many new hires or upgrades going forward any way you slice it. That also means fewer bids and no larger international equipment over which to lateral in the future.

So, be prepared to swing gear in the right seat for a very long time. Be prepared for displacements or worse yet, furlough. Be prepared for a long time on reserve where there's no right or wrong, only contractual and FAR Legal. in addition, expect no eventual perks as a senior FO either. No cushy lines. No vacations in summer. No 777s or 787s and the better pay and schedules that come with them. Plan on years of working weekends, nights and holidays only to eventually ugrade to reserve captain on Reserve in ANC at 12 years or 15 in SEA. But, don't worry. There will be a senior guy standing next to you in OPS on Thanksgiving or Xmas. He'll be the one bragging about getting premium pay or working thru vacation.

Just know what you're getting into. Then maybe you too won't be "disgruntled" in the end. A lot has changed in this industry the last 15 years, especially for those on the lower half of the seniority list.

I can only speak for myself. It didn't go down as I had planned. I don't think that I or any of the other senior FOs in this industry could have predicted or planned on the race to the bottom that the last 15 years has been.
Are you suggesting that you know what the next 12 to 15 years have in store for Alaska? No one does. I hope someone hired today doesn't have to go through a 5 year increase in mandatory retirement age and another Great Recession. Unless there's a merger or other drastic change to the business plan, we will see upgrade times start to fall.

According to APC, the junior captain at SWA was hired 9 years ago. Do you think someone hired there today is looking at a 9 year upgrade? Doubtful, likely longer, but admit that no one really knows.

You can't just take a snapshot of the longevity of current upgrades and tell a new hire that's how long it will take him.
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