That's not it at all. No one has a crystal ball. I'm telling them to plan for the worst and hope for the best.

And no, you cannot tell someone how long it's going to take to upgrade. Nor, can you tell them in new-hire indoct, "Welcome to your last airline." It's all relative. The point being, it might be longer at Alaska relative to elsewhere.

It's all about the math. The choices and options afforded elsewhere and the negatives specific to Alaska might make Alaska less than someone's first choice.

The upgrade at Alaska is not going to snap back five years to the nine year mark just because the age 65 lump in the python finally exits the snakes anus. Changes concurrent to age-65 adversely affected progression and QoL.

The increases in productivity, seat mile growth only, the loss of trips touching and bank vacation, reduced credit for training and vacation days, selling back your vacations, working on your vacations, reserves working on their day off, building your lines up to FAA limits pilot to pilot and FAR 117 all make for increased upgrade times and stagnation in the right seat and decreases in QoL.

I jump-seat on Alaska a lot. One of their own Union Negotiators (R.D.) told me that they (their union) believe that the average pilot at Alaska is still going to be a Captain many more years than an FO. Therefore, their contract must take care of the captains. Well, they did just that. Whether or not what he said is still true remains to be seen. But, in the mean time, there's a whole generation of FOs at Alaska who would argue that their career earnings have been adversely affected by their union's negotiation results.

Interestingly, the last Alaska contract made the captains whole again at Alaska with respect to pay. They negotiated a captain pay that brought them back above Pre-Kasher. They didn't do the same for the right seat. FO's are still making less than pre-kasher, even after taking up to a 35% pay cut. To add insult to injury, they're looking at longer upgrades due to the increases in productivity given.

So, the point again, is that due to things specific to Alaska, like culture, history, work rules, size and the pansy factor, Alaska might not be your first choice in TODAY'S hiring environment.

On a related note, SWA announces increased hiring due to older pilots getting more vacation days with increased longevity. Why? Because they still have trips touching. On the other hand, Alaska announces reduced hiring because they announced vacation buy backs.

On a related note, SWAPA and SWA Captains recognize an increase in upgrade times. They respond by giving their FO's a higher percentage of captain pay. Alaska says you'll be a Captain eventually. In the mean time eff-off.

Did SWA furlough? No.