Wind downs don't happen over night. Ask the Comair guys how long it took. Even 25 year captains ended up at ASA. The junior FOs that get furloughed will look for a job ASAP.
Almost all regionals are doing anything for FOs right now, over the phone offers, walk-in interviews etc. but, If one truly wanted to get properly staffed the first year pay rate would be at least what second year pay is.
If management is true to their word, there probably won't have to be furloughs. Hiring can stay at its pace now or slow down slightly. Aircraft will come off contracts and attrition will keep staffing numbers in near equilibrium. Skywest will extend its current contracts and get new ones with the new deliveries. No transfer of aircraft will be necessary and even if it was, only the ASA guys are protected after the 5th aircraft.
As time goes on, both sides will shrink, some guys will make lateral moves to other regionals, many others will jump to LCC and Legacy carriers just as they are doing now.
The senior guys will hang on, some will reconsider not applying sooner and kick themselves a little bit when they see the junior FO they flew with a couple years back is 1000 numbers ahead of them at their new carrier. But that is just how the profession works unfortunately. Seniority seniority seniority.
Hopefully I am missing something here and there is an extreme shortage that turns things around and forces better pay, but the real wins are happening at the majors right now. They are all getting in line as far as pay goes, record profits, mass hiring finally, protecting mainline jobs instead of allowing management to funnel it to the whipsaw wolves aka regionals.
Delta is talking historic contract 2015, hopefully that is the case.
By your third year you make more than most regional captains top out at. And that is just pay rate wise, then add in the better benefits and great 401k numbers.
Great things are happening at the major level. The massive shakeup in the regional world will hopefully motivate a lot of good people to make the move. And hopefully the senior guys that don't want to move on will be able to hold out long enough to retire comfortably and enjoy some nice hobbies and family time.