I believe it's a mistake to think that ALL separating or retiring military pilots want to fly for the airlines - especially those retiring who have probably been in staff/management positions for ten years. When I retired it was a choice of JR FO at a major airline or a management position paying twice what I made in the USAF. No contest plus I was home every night.

The military (USAF/USN joint programs) train about 1200 pilots a year and I expect that to decrease. Assuming 1200 leave the military each year and 1/3 of them have no desire to fly for the airlines, that leaves about 800 military pilots applying to the airlines. A certain portion of them will go cargo or executive.

There is a "pent up demand" right now where a higher number of military pilots are available. There will be a RIF (reduction in force) in the near future and some younger pilots will separate. One of their problems might be low flight time and no ATP. I Think when it all "settles down" there may be about 600-700 former military pilots available to the industry each year.

This is a guess on my part and would welcome someone else's opinion.