A real snap shot of upgrade time (CRJ side). As of April seniority list and latest attrition data published for this year, not including March.

-Me= 6 year FO Seniority (CRJ side) #1432
-Most junior capt #1035
-A difference of 397
-With 24 FOs leaving and 15 CAs leaving so far this year = 39
-Considering I am half up the FO list, I assume that half of the FOs leaving are junior to me. So 27 pilots left that are senior to me. That's is 14 pilots a month leaving rounded up.
-Also considering there are 72 FOs SENIOR to the most JUNIOR CAs currently, I will assume they will stay there, as this is a snap shot of today's data. That puts me at 325 from upgrade
-325/14=23 months to upgrade. That's an 8 year upgrade!

This does not assume shrinkage (LOL) nor the rate of attrition increasing. Both of those are likely, but IMO, will cancel each other out. If a pilot was hired today, he is looking at aprox 4 year upgrade. The most junior guy me is #1767, a difference of 335. 335/14=24 months after I upgrade which puts him at 4 years.