Originally Posted by
buddies8
For the next down cycle, when the flow stops, and low rates for larger aircraft all for minimum 10 years. Down cycle is just around the corner and Putin is going to cause oil to go up 20% minimum because he needs the money for Russia. This job better said this industry is effected by everything and mostly for the bad.
Withe the new aa scope, any feeder can fly any type of aircraft on the same certificate that is feeding aa as long as the feed aircraft to aa meet the restriction 76 seats and 86000 mtow. All other aircraft can be used for ant other purpose, example they get the c300, with the aid if aa for reservation and one world membership and a code share with one world they can fly an airplane with 125 seats for the price of the crj700 for ten years.
It is not what they show you that that is the plan, the plan they don't show you is the important one.
Now jump on.
Buddies, you make a valid point but let me use part of you example and play devils advocate for a second. I do this simply to understand where you're coming from and your thoughts, not to argue.
Say that 'black swan' moment is around the corner and oil jumps or something else catastrophic happens. As it stands now, Eagle has no fleet guarantees of any nature and management seems hell bent to diversify feed and find lower cost options. If oil does skyrocket as you stated, wouldn't it be even more imperative for management to seek that lower cost option (i.e. say Mesa or anyone else for example).
At the same time, if such a black swan event happens, wouldn't you assume that hiring at all levels (especially majors) will be tempered to a certain extent if not done for, for the time being until retirements really ramp up more. Therefore, places will stagnate to a certain degree for a least a while, and in the meantime if that flying does shift (because Eagle currently has not fleet guarantee) it would only make it easier for another regional to staff...i.e. regional pilot shortage a moot point.
On the other hand, if Eagle DID have a fleet plan of minimum 170 frames, and oil shot the roof (or any other event), wouldn't it be more advantageous to have that guarantee and ride it out until hiring would resume. At least in that scenario, regardless of costs of oil, labor, aircraft, etc, Eagle would be sheltered unlike if it did not have any sort of fleet plan. In that case management would have even more incentive to shift flying due to costs and aircraft inefficiency, and staffing would no longer be an issue due to decrease in hiring at the majors because of the oil costs and lower yields, which would inevitably result in flight reductions.
I could be totally wrong but maybe there's food for thought.