Originally Posted by
gloopy
We could see that in way less than ten years. The devil is in the certification details and the cost.
I agree. I was trying to be optimistic, and not make it sound like it'll be on our Ops Certificate's tomorrow. Reallistically, I think it's 5-7 years out anyway.
Originally Posted by
gloopy
Will it be sufficient to just wire an alarm clock to the rest quarters that goes off for just about anything? That plus some "hacker proof" (yeah right) remote control to the existing autopilot? If the auto throttles quit and the alarm got a sleeping pilot to the controls before anything bad happened, does that flight now have to divert because the crew will time out because their rest was interrupted?
MEL dependent, per company certification. Refer to FTB's Flow Charts. (FTB, I think there's a copyright in there for your somewhere?)
Originally Posted by
gloopy
It can technically be "done" quite easily, depending on your definition of do (or it). But it can't be done cheaply while still providing the same level of monitoring, intervention and crisis response times. And all for what, saving 2 pilots hourly costs? Even considering total compensation hourly costs, I can't see them being anywhere near 10 years from something like that with the same level of safety, reliability and cost.
You bring up a fair analysis of associated "cost to entry" into the program. I think you're oversimplifying, or maybe slightly exaggerating the costs associated with application, but the point you brought up above, is exactly why there's now an RFP and a four-year program to look into the dynamics of implementation.
Originally Posted by
gloopy
Who knows, maybe Fred Smith hates pilots so much he's willing to fall on his sword to throw belly containers of thousand dollar bills at something like this long before its truly cost ready just to say he does it. But with increasing margin pressures that are challenging otherwise solid volumes and the era of dual subsidized meglomaniac foreign carriers about to capacity dump on them as fast as Boeing and Airbus can crank them out, I'm not seeing how that segment can afford to screw around with something like that in the next 10 years.
Respectfully, what I've highlighted above is the exact point of discussion. Domestic carriers/cargo operators like Delta, American, United, FEDEX, or UPS won't be spending the money on this technology. The infrastructure is being tested, as we speak, and cost to entry will be significantly reduced, based on the Corporate contractor world and our very own (spread the wealth) Gubermint assuming all the costs. (Remember how good of a deal Solyndra was expected to be?)
I'm not a tinfoil hat, sky is falling, black helicopters following me type of a guy, (Although I did fly the Blackhawk for about eight years.)
but this technology is here to stay, and is only going to become more prolific and be cost advantageous to user's in the future. (Hint - My current iPhone has the same computing capability of my first [Toshiba] laptop, in 2002, that cost me just under $2000.)
Good day,
GJ