Budget, FTU backlog and Mx. All of the other bases are NOT doing just fine....you have no clue. The timeline is very fluid, this happens more than you think.

When a class starts UPT, there is some idea as to where the students (by the numbers) will go. This trickles down thru AFPC into the AETC world. This is all based on a number of sorties being able to be flown, money for hours, money for mx, money for hookers and blow.

If one of the latter 3 is missing, production stops -- read any business book. Currently, ATS is low, FCF capability is low, manning is low. The ability to turn a jet into a 4 turn has diminished. No jets + no IP's = no lines. Over a given period, it starts to backlog.

Bottom line, it is a much larger picture than you want to grasp.