Its simple math, if your regional airline has a 2000 pilot group, 1000 pilots would have to leave to make you near 50% up the seniority list. More importantly, your airline needs to hire 1000 pilots below you in order to keep you in the top 50%. Now do you see any regional airline hiring that many pilots in the next few years? Not at the current rate. The pilots don't exist at the starting salaries offered currently so since hiring is slow, upgrade will also be slow. except for going to a small regional like compass with a 500-600 pilot group, it will be very hard if not impossible for a new hire to work his way to the left seat. The ability to hire will limit upgrades. Now if the industry does the "right thing" and increases first year pay, then perhaps regionals will be able to hire and upgrades will follow, but that scenario is unlikely.