Originally Posted by
daldude
Quote:
Indeed. By September 2025 (11 years from now), we will have MANDATORILY retired over 6000 pilots, more than half our current seniority list. What does that say for the advancement potential of today's new-hire?
Small correction, sir.
If the early retirement numbers stay like 2013 you can expect a 3% early retirement rate. So that is about 38 early retirements over the next half decade and about 180 early over the next 11 years.
Just flew with line check captain who said at the line check meeting the early retirement subject came up several times and the general consensus was its to expensive to go early. Due to health insurance, lack of retirement and such.
Keep in mind that the early rate has dropped to 3 percent after a early out program was offered. It will pick up a bit as time goes on. That also does not include pilots who medical out which is a much higher number. Absent another early out program you will not see to many early outs on the Delta side. There is no reason to retire. Pilots will do one of 3 things. Stay till they retire or die, go out on disability or drop down to one or two trips a month. I know one now who flies one or sometimes two turns a month. Progression will however be above the basic retirement rate by a good margin.