When I said the most junior lineholder is a Nov. 2012 hire all I did was go into PBS Bid Info for MSP and it said there were 89 targeted lines. The FO who is 89th in seniority is a 11/12 hire. Obviously if a lot of people above that person are bidding reserve or not bidding it could cause some extremely junior people to get lines. It's hard to predict that kind of thing though. One month a 3 month FO could have a line, then they could end up going 8 months on reserve before they get another line. The Nov. 2012 guy probably has a pretty solid line.

You're not wrong, but I still wouldn't tell a new hire to expect a line in 3 months since that's dependent on how the more senior people bid.