IMHO, I'd suggest guys think in terms of an average of 6 upgrades and 12 new hires per added airframe. (The actual number is of course determined by the number of block hours, segments, and unproductive layover days required by the schedule.) So if you're thinking about upgrade take the number of guys above you to the bottom captain, currently about 340, then subtract retirements, and divide by 6....that's the number of airframes required. Then guess at how many years to get that many airframes as a net increase. The company has said all along that the 330 deliveries give them flexibility....they can retain the 76s and increase flying, or return 76s and slow the growth to match demand or economic conditions. This is exactly what they've done.

If we add one airframe net per year for the next 3 years that would likely require 18 new captains, and allowing for 24 retirements that would be 42 new captain slots. 12 new hires plus 24 retirements equals 36 new hires. This is a reasonable guestimate for the next three years baring any major marketing change or other driver....that's anyone's guess. Our success, (or a lack thereof), in China may be a wild card, but only time will tell.

A321 deliveries start late 2016 or early 2017 at maybe 4-5 year will speed things up, but if you're number 500 for example, you're probably realistically going to need all of the 321 deliveries to make captain.

And lastly, let's hope that there isn't an acquisition or merger. All bets are off at that point.