Originally Posted by
PilotCrusader
Going back to my truth in numbers statement:
You are at 700+ pilots. You need 900. With 200 to go, new hires today would not enjoy the quick moves you are putting on here as obvious fodder for them.
Assuming 100 pilot attrition per year (48 flow and the rest other)
Assuming Captain will run around 450 on the list
Assuming 20% of your pilot force(180 pilots)like other regionals right now, is reserve:
-A pilot hired as number 700 would escape reserve and have 2.5 years to upgrade.
-A pilot hired as number 800 would sit reserve for 9 months and upgrade in 3.5 years.
-A pilot hired as number 900 would sit reserve for 18 months and upgrade in 4.5 years.
Assuming you are still getting 50 per month, that means the guy hired 3-4 months from now is not going to have a great deal.
This is also assuming the state of the industry stays the same. If not, well then enjoy what will seem like an eternity on crappy reserve with a crappy contract and pay.
This is true of any regional that experiences growth. You obviously want to get in on the front of the wave. The "front of the wave" door may be closing pretty soon here at PSA. No argument there. That being said I'm going to put a little more truth in to your numbers.
Please keep in mind that if 20% of our group is on reserve only 10% of those are FOs. The other are captains. So I think you need cut your reserve time estimate by at least 50%.
Your last point with the industry changing is not a PSA-centric problem. Getting stuck on reserve at PSA for years would suck. I know this from first hand experience as I commuted to reserve for just about 2 years. It was bad. It will be bad everywhere though. Reserve sucks at every regional and there is nothing in our contract that makes it any worse than it is anywhere else.
I also think we can both agree that the above scenario with the industry stalling has a slim to almost no chance of happening in the near future.
Cheers.