Originally Posted by
Flamer
Well, the percentage of flying we do should temporarily improve in the near term as we go forward as a result of economic and regulatory factors. What makes it permanent is scope. Changes to the scope clause will cost less negotiating capital when it is less desirable to the company. I'm not saying burn all the capital in CY15, but there will be some cheaper opportunities in the future to shore it up. Buy low and sell high. It's easy.
I don't think there is anything "temporary" about it. I think it's a result of the company getting the 717's and getting rid of the 50 seaters. Whether you think Delta would have gotten these with or without C2012, it's a moot point. We are getting them and the ratio of flying is definitely swinging in mainline's favor, contractually. Yes, economics has something to do with it, management has finally realized the economics of the RJ are not what they wish for so they are upgauging. As far as regulatory factors, I think the 1500 hour rule is HUGE! It looks like they cannot, or soon will not, be able to staff DCI properly. (On a side note, maybe this is why they haven't purchased all the new 76 seaters they can...) The only "temporary" factor I see is possibly the economic one and, as a whole, I don't think the economy is going gangbusters anyway.
You are absolutely right, what makes scope changes permanent are changes to the scope clause... It's just now the shoe is on the other foot so to speak. In Contract 2012 some were willing to use some negotiating capital to limit RJ scope and others were not. It just seems to me that many of us have changed our viewpoints (on both sides). I'm now of the opinion we should negotiate more restrictive scope, just not use any negotiating capital to do so. (As many on this forum expressed in the C2012 discussions.)
Denny