Originally Posted by
Cubdriver
This article Cliff quotes is not authoritative. It is based on Roger Cohen's opinion, and he is a motivated speaker at best, a paid representative of the Regional Airline Association. I urge anyone interested in the truth about the alleged pilot shortage to disregard his words entirely. Here's the article Cliff quoted, since he did not provide it in his post:
FlightGlobal article
If instead you want to hear an
unmotivated opinion on the pilot staffing question, try the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, who says there will be a minor
decline in the number of jobs for airline pilot jobs until the end of the decade (or 2022). Far from a shortage, there will actually be a surplus of pilots to some small degree. I am convinced this whole thing about a pilot shortage is cooked up by the aircraft industry to sell more airplanes, and the airlines to drive up pilot supply and drive down pilot wages (or keep them low).
OOC Airline Pilots and Commercial Pilots
Even if there is no change in available jobs(growth) there will still be opportunity for pretty much every pilot at a regional right now in the next 10 years.
Fact is though, even if there are no
NEW jobs available it will still call for
NEW pilots due to retirements. So.....That little chart says that there are ~100,000 jobs right now. There are ~20,000 retirements in the next 10 years. So to even keep the jobs at 100k you need new pilots coming in to fill the void. That is where there shortage comes from. That 100k is not just 121 either. There percentage of turnover there will be in 121 is much higher than 20%.
There doesn't need to be growth to have a shortage.
I'm not arguing for, or against the fact that there will be a shortage but your article certainly does nothing to prove the fact that it will not happen.
Originally Posted by
satpak77
Outstanding work
One more credibility strike against the pilot-shortage-will-happen crowd.
Not really.