Originally Posted by
pagey
Even if there is no change in available jobs(growth) there will still be opportunity for pretty much every pilot at a regional right now in the next 10 years.
Fact is though, even if there are no NEW jobs available it will still call for NEW pilots due to retirements. So.....That little chart says that there are ~100,000 jobs right now. There are ~20,000 retirements in the next 10 years. So to even keep the jobs at 100k you need new pilots coming in to fill the void. That is where there shortage comes from. That 100k is not just 121 either. There percentage of turnover there will be in 121 is much higher than 20%.
There doesn't need to be growth to have a shortage.
I'm not arguing for, or against the fact that there will be a shortage but your article certainly does nothing to prove the fact that it will not happen.
Not really.
What you posted, highlighted by me in red, is the problem.
"Growth" is not the opposite of "shortage" in the context of pilot hiring. "Shortage" for this situation, is akin to (exactly or similar concept --->) :
Reduced number of / Lacking sufficient qualified applicants/resumes/candidates for the sought after, well paid, major airline/freight/corporate jobs.
There will likely be a shortage at the regionals, yes, due to ATP requirements and their own aging population. Yes. But most of us are talking the cockpits below, of which I believe there will be
NO SHORTAGE of qualified applicants/resumes for those jobs:
No Shortage of Qualified Applicants, ever
UAL/AAL/DAL/SWA/JBLU type carriers
Corporate departments such as Exxon-Mobil, Johnson and Johnson, Union Pacific, Microsoft which operate G-5, Global Express level equipment with great pay and benefits and are unlikely to disappear overnight.
FDX/UPS
Yes, a possible shortage of qualified applicants (but even that is in question)
ACME Flight school C-152 job
Shuttle Everywhere RJ FO job
Flying local beer distributor's C-90
The "pilot shortage" camp is lumped everything into one general pot. Pilot shortage ? Yes, maybe, at the places I outlined. However since the
END CAREER GOAL for most is at the places I outlined, then that is all that matters.
And again, at those places,
no shortage.
My opinion....