Originally Posted by
satpak77
What you posted, highlighted by me in red, is the problem.
"Growth" is not the opposite of "shortage" in the context of pilot hiring. "Shortage" for this situation, is akin to (exactly or similar concept --->) :
Reduced number of / Lacking sufficient qualified applicants/resumes/candidates for the sought after, well paid, major airline/freight/corporate jobs.
There will likely be a shortage at the regionals, yes, due to ATP requirements and their own aging population. Yes. But most of us are talking the cockpits below, of which I believe there will be NO SHORTAGE of qualified applicants/resumes for those jobs:
No Shortage of Qualified Applicants, ever
UAL/AAL/DAL/SWA/JBLU type carriers
Corporate departments such as Exxon-Mobil, Johnson and Johnson, Union Pacific, Microsoft which operate G-5, Global Express level equipment with great pay and benefits and are unlikely to disappear overnight.
FDX/UPS
Yes, a possible shortage of qualified applicants (but even that is in question)
ACME Flight school C-152 job
Shuttle Everywhere RJ FO job
Flying local beer distributor's C-90
The "pilot shortage" camp is lumped everything into one general pot. Pilot shortage ? Yes, maybe, at the places I outlined. However since the END CAREER GOAL for most is at the places I outlined, then that is all that matters.
And again, at those places, no shortage.
My opinion....
Those "undesirables" you mentioned are basically where major airline pilots are bred.
If there is a shortage at that level eventually there must be a shortage at the next.
It won't be 2015 but once all the hirable regional pilots are gone where does the next batch of major pilots come from in say 2025?
Generally speaking right now legacy jobs are coming from mil and regionals. For the most part they want 121 experience. Your run of the mill career CFI or 135 guy flying a CJ3, or a C90, or a pilatus doesn't really get looked at without a strong connection inside, a racial card, or maybe an internship. Of course there are exceptions to this rule but 9 out of 10 are mil/regional.
As the regionals are depleted and do not get backfilled those pilots(who are perfectly capable of doing the job) will now have a shot that they would never have had in 2005.
We will probably never see a legacy airline start canceling flights or parking acft because they cannot put bodies in the seats but this "shortage" will open doors for many that were previously locked tight.