Originally Posted by
Cubdriver
No, but claiming there is a shortage now or soon is not supported by anything very good.
To the contrary, we know that while there will still be ~100k jobs for all comm/airline pilots around 2022, we also know from FAA data that ~140k "active" (not sure what that really means, but) ATPs are there to be had (see table), and the supply is fairly constant as well (see chart). A genuine, deep pilot shortage does not exist and probably will not exist in our lifetimes. The current problem is one of low pay- raise the pay and people will come back to the job, and new pilots will be created.
I want to see the same table along with data on the age ranges of ATP/Comm holders. I.e. are 20% of the "active" ATP holders 55-60? How many ATP holders at the end of 2013 were under 55 or so?
Is there a data source detailing ages of active ATP/comm holders? I'll look later if no one has found anything.