Originally Posted by
ClickClickBoom
AOPAs single largest concern is flight training starts and certificate completions. It really is a base level concern. GA flying hours down, the costs of everything from regular MX to engine overhauls goes up due to volume inefficiencies. Look at the price of a gallon of AVgas. How much is a C172 rental at your local FBO? This is about the money, or lack of it. Price the 0-to commercial package at AllATP, then add 1250 more hours to complete the picture. In today's economy who has that kind of cash, because banks nor the federal government aren't loaning nor guaranteeing aviation training loans.
This industry has spent the last 60 years exploiting pilots and it finally is reaping what it has sown.
If you want to look at most regional newhire classes that will tell the story, recycled pilots from other regionals is just shuffling of the deck not adding to the count overall. Want the truth, follow the money trail. The regional industry will eat itself from the sphincter in and when that is complete, the majors will have their bite at the poo sandwich. The truth of the matter is, pilots are highly trained machine operators, with a lead time involved for the training. Airplanes are expensive and even more expensive when they aren't flying. I was around for the Kit Darby years and have been in the airline industry since, these are different times, vastly different. The cost of GA and training is the primary difference.
Maybe, was there ever a "pilot mill" path to major airlines? Methinks that most major airline pilots are ex-military pilots, at least that's the going rate for the ones I meet. This has been the classic "feed" for major airlines. Along the way they figured out they could save money by contracting out new flying to regionals and then they could get pilots to fly for said regionals by dangling the possibility of "one day being able to be a real airline pilot" and fly for one of those legacy carriers, but in reality the regional pilots are kept as regional fodder. Not because of any intentional action, just because this is the way the interviews and hiring process has always gone. You got 10 years in the military as an officer, PIC of turbine aircraft, college degree, possible experience with a heavy platform like B-52s, C-17s, etc and at the least the discipline required to complete training for such a platform. There are decent reasons for this and the idea that people can go to a regional for just a couple years and head on to a major has been dangled by AOPAl, Kit Darby and all the "gang" (colleges, pilot mills, etc) to further their own interests, as you say. As a "path" to major airlines, the pilot mill and pilot university thing is somewhat "myth" and somewhat untried conjecture. They want it to work, but it really hasn't yet. In the future when everything in the military is drones, it might be forced to work..