Originally Posted by
tomgoodman
True, and therefore individuals are likely to make some "bad" decisions, but they won't all make the
same bad decisions. As I recall, the theory holds that, for very large groups and over time, the net behavior tends to appear informed and rational, something like the physics of subatomic particles. What an individual person or particle will do (or "should" do) is unknown.

You're absolutely right, but if you look at the pilot profession from a purely rational, economic perspective...
...then only the guys who've made it to the left seat of a widebody can be said to have been 'rational' actors. And since most of those guys had no idea when they started, whether they'd wind up in those coveted positions, or furloughed without a pension like so many of their friends, we could say that they are not 'rational' actors, but merely the lucky ones.
Why do I say this? Look at the cost, time, and level of personal achievement required to make it to the front office of any airliner, whether that be a B-1900 or an A-380. You've got to invest a
significant amount of time and money to get to the point where you're employable at a regional. You have to be medically fit, and you're going to need a higher degree of professionalism, interpersonal skills, and general intelligence than, say, the local station agents of San Francisco's BART train system (who are only required to hold GEDs, are probably banned from employment if their IQ breaks three digits...and who make
six times as much as a regional new-hire FO.)
So when you consider everything you have to do in order to even get an interview at a regional, and then look at your financial compensation for doing that job...well, from a purely rational perspective, any economist would conclude that you, and every other pilot on that same path, are completely and utterly irrational.
Had any of us invested the same level of effort and money in, say, learning how to trade derivatives or junk bonds or package and sell credit default swaps, we'd all be vastly better-compensated than even the most senior mainline widebody captain. (Obviously I'm dramatically simplifying things, but my point is: none of us are rational actors.)
So why do we do it? Because we love flying. And, yes, because those of us who are young enough
may still have a chance at one day achieving the sort of pay and lifestyle that only the most senior mainline guys now enjoy. But I'd wager that most pilots employed by the airlines today are there for one simple reason: Because they love flying and can't imagine themselves at a 9--5 desk job. Or, because they've spent their former lives in a 9-5 desk job and realize that they have no wish to spend one more minute of their lifespan in a cubicle.
From a pure economic perspective, pilots as a whole are not rational actors. The supply curve is very much twisted to the advantage of the airlines, and they know it. If Republic turned around tomorrow and said "You know what guys, we're parking the airplanes and offering bus services instead. Same pay, same QOL...but you'll be driving a Greyhound"...well, I think you wouldn't see too many pilots sticking around. The lure of the skies, whether you call it SJS or what have you, is strong indeed. It causes people to do irrational things.
But having said all that, pure economic rationality often leads most of us into professional careers that we despise at worst, and tolerate at best. There is no other occupation on this planet that enchants me more than flying (aside from international playboy, but I keep getting told I don't meet the hiring minima...)