Originally Posted by
Gupboy
Since ISL there have been relatively few CA bids, so naturally they will be taken by LUAL pilots who can hold them and WANT them.
According to July staffing, the most junior LUAL EWR 737 CA is number 7954. Mixed right in with LCAL 05 hires. Obviously some very senior LUAL pilots did not bid those seats. So that "long time" comment is subject to debate. Nearly half of LCAL 05 hires are merged with LUAL 97 hires, who are rightfully assuming CA bids. Most LCAL 05 hires that wanted a captain bid already have it. Most others are 777/787 FO's or very senior in seat 737 FO's. Without knowing the companies staffing plans, it's pure speculation stating how long it will take for a seniority block to hold a seat.
I think this analysis may be flawed. Was the 7954 pilot awarded the position in a vacancy bid or via a displacement? My guess is that it's a displacement. I think the real seniority number of pilots bidding in is at about 7000. I expect it will get closer to 8000 within a year, but right now that's what you need in order to be awarded captain on the 737.